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Abstract Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun–Earth line, leaving the far side of the Sun unobserved. Surface flux transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open-source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (https://github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to write extensions easily, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT’s model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/postprocessing options, and example use cases. 

The Sun’s corona is its tenuous outer atmosphere of hot plasma, which is difficult to observe. Most models of the corona extrapolate its magnetic field from that measured on the photosphere (the Sun’s optical surface) over a full 27-day solar rotational period, providing a time-stationary approximation. We present a model of the corona that evolves continuously in time, by assimilating photospheric magnetic field observations as they become available. This approach reproduces dynamical features that do not appear in time-stationary models. We used the model to predict coronal structure during the total solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 near the maximum of the solar activity cycle. There is better agreement between the model predictions and eclipse observations in coronal regions located above recently assimilated photospheric data. 

Abstract The Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model has been in use for decades and remains a popular, economical approach to modeling the solar coronal magnetic field and forecasting conditions in the inner heliosphere. Given its usefulness, it is unsurprising that a number of WSA implementations have been developed by various groups with different computational approaches. While the WSA magnetic field model has traditionally been calculated using a spherical harmonic expansion of the solar magnetic field, finite-difference potential field solutions can offer speed and/or accuracy advantages. However, the creation of new versions of WSA requires that we ensure the solutions from these new models are consistent with established versions and that we quantify for the user community to what degree and in what ways they differ. In this paper, we present side-by-side comparisons of WSA models produced using the traditional, spherical harmonic–based implementation developed by Wang, Sheeley, and Arge with WSA models produced using a recently open-sourced finite-difference code from the CORHEL modeling suite called POT3D. We present comparisons of the terminal solar wind speed and magnetic field at the outer boundaries of the models, weighing these against the variation of the WSA model in the presence of small perturbations in the computational procedure, parameters, and inputs. We also compare the footpoints of magnetic field lines traced from the outer boundaries and the locations of open field in the models. We find that the traced field-line footpoints show remarkable agreement, with the greatest differences near the magnetic neutral line and in the polar regions. 

Abstract To address Objective II of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan “Develop and Disseminate Accurate and Timely Space Weather Characterization and Forecasts” and US Congress PROSWIFT Act 116–181, our team is developing a new set of open-source software that would ensure substantial improvements of Space Weather (SWx) predictions. On the one hand, our focus is on the development of data-driven solar wind models. On the other hand, each individual component of our software is designed to have accuracy higher than any existing SWx prediction tools with a dramatically improved performance. This is done by the application of new computational technologies and enhanced data sources. The development of such software paves way for improved SWx predictions accompanied with an appropriate uncertainty quantification. This makes it possible to forecast hazardous SWx effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems, and on human health. Our models include (1) a new, open-source solar magnetic flux model (OFT), which evolves information to the back side of the Sun and its poles, and updates the model flux with new observations using data assimilation methods; (2) a new potential field solver (POT3D) associated with the Wang–Sheeley–Arge coronal model, and (3) a new adaptive, 4-th order of accuracy solver (HelioCubed) for the Reynolds-averaged MHD equations implemented on mapped multiblock grids (cubed spheres). We describe the software and results obtained with it, including the application of machine learning to modeling coronal mass ejections, which makes it possible to improve SWx predictions by decreasing the time-of-arrival mismatch. The tests show that our software is formally more accurate and performs much faster than its predecessors used for SWx predictions. 

Abstract We have developed a comprehensive catalog of the variable differential rotation measured near the solar photosphere. This catalog includes measurements of these flows obtained using several techniques: direct Doppler, granule tracking, magnetic pattern tracking, global helioseismology, as well as both time-distance and ring-diagram methods of local helioseismology. We highlight historical differential rotation measurements to provide context, and thereafter provide a detailed comparison of the MDI-HMI-GONG-Mt. Wilson overlap period (April 2010 – Jan 2011) and investigate the differences between velocities obtained from different techniques and attempt to explain discrepancies. A comparison of the rotation rate obtained by magnetic pattern tracking with the rotation rates obtained using local and global helioseismic techniques shows that magnetic pattern tracking measurements correspond to helioseismic flows located at a depth of 25 to 28 Mm. In addition, we show the torsional oscillation from Sunspot Cycles 23 and 24 and discuss properties that are consistent across measurement techniques. We find that acceleration derived from torsional oscillation is a better indicator of long-term trends in torsional oscillation compared to the residual velocity magnitude. Finally, this analysis will pave the way toward understanding systematic effects associated with various flow measurement techniques and enable more accurate determination of the global patterns of flows and their regular and irregular variations. 

The Sun moves with respect to the local interstellar medium (LISM) and modifies its properties to heliocentric distances as large as 1 pc. The solar wind (SW) is affected by penetration of the LISM neutral particles, especially H and He atoms. Charge exchange between the LISM atoms and SW ions creates pickup ions (PUIs) and secondary neutral atoms that can propagate deep into the LISM. Neutral atoms measured at 1 au can provide us with valuable information on the properties of pristine LISM. New Horizons provides us with unique measurements of pickup ions in the SW region where they are thermodynamically dominant. Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft perform in-situ measurements of the LISM perturbed by the presence of the heliosphere and relate them to the unperturbed region. The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) makes it possible identify the 3-D structure of the heliospheric interface. We outline the main challenges in the physics of the SW–LISM interaction. The physical processes that require a focused attention of the heliospheric community are discussed from the theoretical perspective and space missions necessary for their investigation. We emphasize the importance of data-driven simulations, which are necessary for the interpretation and explanation of spacecraft data. 

Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting. 

This white paper is on the HMCS Firefly mission concept study. Firefly focuses on the global structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the deciphering of the solar cycle, the conditions leading to the explosive activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona as it drives the heliosphere.